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If the Markets were a Movie...

If the Markets were a Movie...

April 17, 2023

If this were a movie, it would be the part where we see a light at the end of the tunnel.  The question remains: is it the bright light of a new day or is it the headlight of the train bearing down on us?    

In short, based on all of the inputs we try to synthesize from different strategists and economists, it’s not likely we are seeing a new dawn quite yet but it’s also not likely that a fully loaded steam train is heading our way.    

It may be more of a large model train… like the twelve inch gauge steam train. (“Silver Spoons” and Ricky Shcroder anyone?  Or the beloved Folsom Valley Railway?)  We don’t want to be run over by this train but it’s not going to leave anywhere near the carnage that a full-size steam train would.    

At this time, it seems clear that inflation is cooling off.  It’s not down to the levels the Federal Reserve is targeting quite yet but it is moving in the preferred direction – down.  This offers hope that the Fed might be closer to finishing this cycle.    

We also see a bit of a shift in the labor market but by no means anything that would be seen as dramatic.  There are still several factors supporting the labor market as well.[1] The labor market will likely need to relax in order for inflation to remain tamed.   

As of today, the Markets responded positively to a higher than expected jobless claims number and a lower than expected inflation number.[2] 

We remain in a bit of a holding pattern with the Markets trading in a range.  At the risk of being incredibly redundant… we have made a lot of progress toward reversing stimulus but have yet to see the full effects on the economy.  As always, the Markets remain forward looking and, thankfully, are more often than not focused on the light of the new day.    

For those who have not already heard… much of California has been offered a reprieve by the IRS.  Taxes for those in affected counties are not due to be filed until October of 2023!  This includes quarterly tax payments that would have been due.  As always with the IRS, this is not a freebie… just a deferral.  More information is available here. As always, please consult with your tax advisor for specifics.   

Here’s to spring sunshine and the light at the end of the tunnel!  


Alisa C. Sakowitz

Financial Advisor
Park Avenue Securities LLC., Pacific Advisors
20 Bicentennial Circle, Suite 100 
Sacramento, CA 95826
P. 916.379.0200 Ext 7241 FAX 916.379.0800

Pacific Advisors, LLC.  Park Avenue Securities, LLC.

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