If this were a movie, it would be the part where we see a light at the end of the tunnel. The question remains: is it the bright light of a new day or is it the headlight of the train bearing down on us?
In short, based on all of the inputs we try to synthesize from different strategists and economists, it’s not likely we are seeing a new dawn quite yet but it’s also not likely that a fully loaded steam train is heading our way.
It may be more of a large model train… like the twelve inch gauge steam train. (“Silver Spoons” and Ricky Shcroder anyone? Or the beloved Folsom Valley Railway?) We don’t want to be run over by this train but it’s not going to leave anywhere near the carnage that a full-size steam train would.
At this time, it seems clear that inflation is cooling off. It’s not down to the levels the Federal Reserve is targeting quite yet but it is moving in the preferred direction – down. This offers hope that the Fed might be closer to finishing this cycle.
We also see a bit of a shift in the labor market but by no means anything that would be seen as dramatic. There are still several factors supporting the labor market as well.[1] The labor market will likely need to relax in order for inflation to remain tamed.
As of today, the Markets responded positively to a higher than expected jobless claims number and a lower than expected inflation number.[2]
We remain in a bit of a holding pattern with the Markets trading in a range. At the risk of being incredibly redundant… we have made a lot of progress toward reversing stimulus but have yet to see the full effects on the economy. As always, the Markets remain forward looking and, thankfully, are more often than not focused on the light of the new day.
For those who have not already heard… much of California has been offered a reprieve by the IRS. Taxes for those in affected counties are not due to be filed until October of 2023! This includes quarterly tax payments that would have been due. As always with the IRS, this is not a freebie… just a deferral. More information is available here. As always, please consult with your tax advisor for specifics.
Here’s to spring sunshine and the light at the end of the tunnel!
Alisa C. Sakowitz
Financial AdvisorPark Avenue Securities LLC., Pacific Advisors20 Bicentennial Circle, Suite 100Sacramento, CA 95826P. 916.379.0200 Ext 7241 FAX 916.379.0800Pacific Advisors, LLC. Park Avenue Securities, LLC.
Data and rates used were indicative of market conditions as of the date shown. Opinions, estimates, forecasts and statements of financial market trends are based on current market conditions and are subject to change without notice. References to specific securities, asset classes and financial markets are for illustrative purposes only and do not constitute a solicitation, offer, or recommendation to purchase or sell a security. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. 2023-154250 Exp 4/24
[2] Morgan Stanley. The 1% Move. April 13th, 2023
Registered Representative & Financial Advisor of Park Avenue Securities, LLC (PAS) 333 N. Indian Hill Blvd., Claremont, CA 91711 ph: 909-399-1100 Securities products and advisory services offered through PAS, a member FINRA, SIPC. Financial Representative of The Guardian Life Insurance Company of America (Guardian), New York, NY. PAS is a wholly owned subsidiary of Guardian. Pacific Advisors LLC is not an affiliate or subsidiary of PAS or Guardian. Insurance Products offered through One Pacific Financial & Insurance Solutions LLC, DBA of Pacific Advisors. Pacific Advisors, LLC is not registered in any state or with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission as a Registered Investment Advisor. CA Insurance License #0C75476
If the Markets were a Movie...
April 17, 2023